Investasi Saham Bank BCA dari Tahun 2000, 10 juta Bisa Jadi Miliarder by Hilmawan Kusumajaya

Kamu tau ga? Selain nabung, kamu juga bisa beli saham bank BCA ($BBCA).

Dari sejak IPO tahun 2000 BCA sudah menghasilkan return 12.171%. Kalau dulu kamu investasi 10 juta di saham BCA, sekarang investasi kamu udah jadi 1.2 Milyar.

Kamu bisa lihat harga dan beli saham BCA dan perusahaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia dari Stockbit.





4 Ways How Your Fundamental Analysis Can Help You In Your Entrepreneurship by aqeel ungku

Written by Ungku Aqeel (@ungkuaqeel418)

Fundamental analysis is the cornerstone of investing. In fact, some would say that you aren't really investing if you aren't performing fundamental analysis. It’s no surprise many people find fundamental analysis daunting. After all, the subject of finance is infamous for its use of jargons. Unlike technical analysis that focuses on the price movement of a security and uses this data to predict future price movements, fundamental analysis instead looks at wholistic economic and financial factors that influence a business.

1. Fundamental analysis naturally helps you understand businesses better

One of the most notable but less obvious rewards of fundamental analysis is the development of solid understanding of the business and industry due to the in-depth, extensive research and analysis required to conduct fundamental analysis.

Before you even look into any financial statements, you need to know what the company is about. This means that you need to know how the company makes money. For example, British American Tobacco’’s revenue stream comes from the amount of products they sell while IHH Healthcare’s revenue stream comes from the number of sick people that are admitted into their hospitals.

Not every business functions the same way. The aforementioned companies are like mangos and durians, both are great fruits (companies) but you can only get them at different times of the year. Making fundamental analysis regularly will go a long way as it help you you familiarise yourself with the different factors or events affecting business operations. The quickest, simplest and most effective way to get started is to read up on research reports on companies released by banks and other research houses. These reports are usually written whenever there is a major event that could affect an entire sector, or whenever a company’s quarterly result is out. Research reports are exclusive to its clients, but these reports can be found all over the internet. One place is on stockbit itself. Follow @BursaBuzz. They post many research reports from various banks and brokers.

A prior understanding about how different businesses or industry works from fundamental analysis of your investment in the stock market will bode well in your overall perspective upon your next business venture!

2. It helps with your “lingo”

Unless the movie Crazy Rich Asians is the story of your life, starting your own business (especially a startup) might mean pitching your business ideas to investors (Venture Capitalists or Private Equity or Angel investors) and future stakeholders. Having a business lingo goes a long way. You can have an idea that could change the world, but ultimately, investors are risking their money with an expectation to generate returns; while future stakeholders are interested on why they would choose you to be their business partner / customer / supplier, etc.

Too shy or afraid to talk to people that are fluent in this “business / financial / investment” lingo in real life because you don't have any prior experience? You can always always practice this on Stockbit by asking other Stockbitors questions and analyse the way they reply you. You might actually learn a thing or two just by reading their conversations!

Knowing how to “talk” and “present” your ideas are always crucial in everyday entrepreneur life. Being good in fundamental analysis and being able to share or debate your investment thoughts and ideas will expose you to real world scenarios, especially on important negotiations.

3. It will help you faster and apt business decisions

Over time, you’re bound to witness a black swan event, be it Pakatan Harapan’s recent victory or the oil crisis in 2015, these events will affect businesses, and fingers crossed, your business too. How would you react to these scenarios? Well, if you have been in the investment world for a while, then you would have witnessed certain events and consequently, witnessed how different corporations and managements reacts to these events.

Marvel has long been the comic-book world’s biggest player. In the mid-1990s the comics market crashed. Consequently, Marvel went broke, and there was no superhero that could save Marvel from bankruptcy. After a series of restructuring, Marvel changed the way its heroes came to life, focusing on movies rather than paper and ink. Today, Iron Man, the Avengers, Spider-Man, and X-Men are all billion-dollar franchises, and the company’s master plan–to connect many of its characters in a single cinematic universe–has turned it into one of pop culture’s most powerful brands.

Being an investor and a shareholder, especially a fundamental long term one, every decision the management and the company makes affects you. And it’s your duty to keep yourself up to date and see how they overcome adversity throughout your holding period. At times, you will know which and what type of CEO and leaders and management team you want to stick around with, and which you will chuck out. Over time, you might just pick up a thing or two that will help you when you face your own business challenges.

4. Patience

Ask any seasoned investor. They’ll tell you that you will make losses from time to time. Sometimes it’s the market, other times it could be an inaccurate decision. You can sell at a loss if you’re not confident in the stock anymore, but if you are convicted with your decision, you can choose to ride out the market wave. It’s a painful journey, but you’ll come out stronger and more importantly, wiser.

Good things takes time. Likewise, when starting your own business, there are seasons where sky seems to be the limit and there are bad seasons where failure seems to look like the only door left to be opened. Be confident with your analysis just like how you need to be confident in your business. If you’re not, then why jump into it in the first place?

Sudah Kerja Keras Bagai Kuda tapi Gaji Bulanan Cuma Sebatas Lewat, Kenapa? by Dedi Utomo

gaji.jpg

Sebagian dari kita mungkin juga mengalami permasalahan yang sama,  kenapa ya uang tetap saja habis walau ada kenaikan gaji dari tempat kerja? Permasalahan ini dampaknya akan serius loh kalau tidak diatasi dengan segera.

Baik, coba kita ulas, sebenarnya kenapa uangmu bisa cepat habis walau gaji sudah bertambah.

Hutang yang tidak dilunasi

Buat kamu yang punya hutang dan harus membayar angsuran bulanan. Hati- hati, jika kamu membiarkan utang tersebut menumpuk maka kamu akan terjerat hutang dan susah untuk melunasinya. Ada baiknya kamu segera melunasi hutang kamu ketika memperoleh kenaikan gaji atau promosi jabatan.

Tingkat inflasi yang tidak diperhitungkan

Tahun kemarin kayaknya harga nasi ayam bakar masih 15rb, eh sekarang udah 20rb. Uang kosan juga naik. Kecenderungan kenaikan harga kebutuhan pokok seperti makan dan tempat tinggal ini dinamakan inflasi. Jika kenaikan harga barang-barang ini lebih besar dari kenaikan gaji kamu, maka kamu akan kehilangan daya beli kamu terhadap barang tersebut. Harusnya seneng karena naik gaji, tapi ternyata harga barang-barang juga naik. Ujung-ujungnya kamu tidak bertambah makmur dengan kenaikan gaji kamu.

Kebiasaan hidup boros

Benar tidak? ketika kamu baru saja menerima gaji dari kantor tempat kamu bekerja rasanya pengen cepet-cepet ke mal buat belanja barang-barang, entah itu baju, makan di restoran terkenal, atau bahkan belanja sesuatu yang sebenarnya tidak kamu butuhkan namun kamu tetap membelinya. Kok gaji cepet amat ya habisnya? perasaan baru tengah bulan tapi dompet udah tipis aja. Dan akhirnya sesuatu yang sebenarnya kamu butuhkan malah tidak terpenuhi, ujung-ujungnya berhutang ke keluarga, bank, atau pinjaman online. Sebulan dua bulan mungkin tidak terasa dampaknya, namun untuk jangka panjang hal ini konsekuensinya bisa sangat serius. Segera hilangkan kebiasaan hidup yang seperti ini supaya kondisi keuangan kamu lebih baik di masa depan.

Meningkatnya gaya hidup

Seiring berjalannya waktu, akan tumbuh keinginan dalam diri kamu untuk meningkatkan gaya hidup. Misalnya, kamu tadinya pergi ke kantor naik bus tapi sekarang ingin naik motor atau mobil.

Kamu juga jadi cenderung memilih makan siang di restoran setiap hari daripada makan di kantin yang harganya jauh lebih murah.

Sah-sah saja kalau kamu menginginkan peningkatan gaya hidup, akan tetapi jangan sampai nantinya justru memberatkan kamu karena kenaikan pengeluaran lebih besar dari kenaikan gaji kamu di kantor.

Buat komitmen untuk membuat alokasi pengeluaran bulanan berdasarkan prioritas yang paling kamu butuhkan, agar keuangan kamu lebih teratur dan gaji kamu tidak sebatas lewat. Sisihkan sebagian uang gaji kamu dan mulailah berinvestasi.

Stockbit Reports Category : Informasi Penting Bagi Investor Tersaji Sesuai Kategorinya by Dedi Utomo

Reports Category.gif

Kini Laporan keterbukaan emiten/fakta material yang ada di Stream Stockbit disajikan sesuai dengan jenis/kategorinya. Fitur ini akan memudahkan kamu untuk memilah keterbukaan informasi sesuai jenis fakta material.

Penjelasan masing-masing reports category adalah sebagai berikut

Laporan Keuangan

Menampilkan laporan keterbukaan informasi penyampaian laporan keuangan emiten baik itu laporan keuangan interim maupun laporan keuangan tahunan.

RUPS/Public Expose

Menampilkan informasi seputar RUPS dan Public Expose baik itu panggilan RUPS/Public Expose, Hasil RUPS, Materi Public Expose.

Kepemilikan Saham

Menampilkan laporan perubahan kepemilikan pemegang saham >5% (lebih dari 5%) pada suatu emiten.

Dividend

Menampilkan informasi tentang jadwal pembagian dividen pada suatu emiten.

Corporate Action

Menampilkan informasi seputar aksi korporasi seperti Right Issue (penerbitan saham baru/HMETD), Stock split (pemecahan saham), Reverse Stock split (Penggabungan saham), Merger (penggabungan perusahaan), Akuisisi, Buyback, Tender Offer, Private Placement (Non HMETD). dll.

Others

Menampilkan informasi mengenai laporan harian nilai aktiva bersih & komposisi portofolio ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), Laporan jumlah peredaran unit penyertaan, perubahan komisaris, direktur, komite audit, Biro Administrasi Efek, dll.

Cara penggunaan Stockbit Reports Category

Black Monday : Pelajaran dari Kejatuhan Pasar Saham Tahun 1987 by Dedi Utomo

black monday2.jpg

Apa sebenarnya yang terjadi dengan mata uang emerging market? Apakah pasar saham pernah mengalami kejatuhan? Pelajaran apa yang bisa kita ambil dari jatuhnya pasar saham? Kita bahas satu-persatu.

Ketika berbicara tentang kejatuhan pasar saham dan dampaknya, kebanyakan orang akan mengingat peristiwa  krisis tahun 2008 ketika Lehman Brother mengalami kebangkrutan dan peristiwa Black Monday tahun 1987.

Awal mula terjadinya pelemahan sebagian besar mata uang emerging market

Suku bunga The Fed turun tajam di tahun 2008, The Fed mengambil kebijakan mengeluarkan uang untuk membeli obligasi jangka panjang untuk memberikan stimulus ekonomi dengan memberikan kemudahan pemberian kredit untuk usaha. Sehingga jumlah dolar yang beredar semakin banyak di masyarakat dan lebih luasnya supplay dolar di emerging market juga tinggi. Inilah yang dinamakan dengan Quantitative Easing (QE).

Sementara sejak tahun 2013 The Fed secara bertahap melakukan pengurangan pembelian obligasi jangka panjang. Proses pengurangan pembelian obligasi secara bertahap itulah yang kemudian dikenal dengan istilah Tapering Off. Keinginan The Fed mengurangi stimulus atau Tapering Off telah membuat dana asing yang parkir di emerging market ramai-ramai keluar. Sehingga sebagian besar mata uang di emerging market cenderung melemah terhadap dolar AS di tahun 2013.

Tapering Off di tahun 2013 masih bisa teratasi, karena walaupun The Fed mengurangi stimulus, namun bank sentral AS itu masih mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga rendah. Yang menjadi perhatian utama investor ketika itu adalah suku bunga acuan atau Fed Rate, bukan lagi pembatasan stimulus.

Jika Fed Rate naik, barulah hot money yang selama ini ada di negara berkembang termasuk di Indonesia akan hengkang dan kembali ke negaranya.

Dan akhirnya terjadilah apa yang dikhawatirkan oleh investor, di mana sejak Desember 2015, secara bertahap bank sentral Amerika menaikkan suku bunganya dan lebih parahnya disertai kebijakan proteksionisme pemerintah Amerika yang memicu terjadinya trade war (perang dagang) terhadap sejumlah negara. Fed Fund Rate yang naik dan kebijakan-kebijakan pemerintah AS yang cenderung menutup diri dari kerjasama internasional yang selama ini kurang menguntungkan menyebabkan dolar di emerging market tanpa ragu hengkang kembali ke negara asalnya. Pada akhirnya mayoritas mata uang di emerging market mengalami pelemahan terhadap dolar karena supplay dolar yang menipis seperti yang terjadi saat ini.

 Sumber : Tradingeconomics

Sumber : Tradingeconomics

Bagaimana dengan Black Monday tahun 1987? Apa analoginya dengan kondisi saat ini?

Kronologi terjadinya Black Monday

19 Oktober 1987 bursa di Wall Street runtuh dalam kurun waktu satu hari. Penyebab keruntuhan menjadi perdebatan. Kejadian ini dikenal sebagai "Black Monday" atau "Senin Hitam".

Sebenarnya pada 1987 indeks Dow Jones mengalami tahun yang baik. Beberapa bulan sebelum Senin Hitam, indeks sahamnya meningkat. Bahkan di bulan Agustus naik 15 persen hingga mencapai 2.700.

Beberapa minggu menjelang keruntuhan, indeks merosot drastis ke kisaran 2.200. "Kehilangan 500 poin menyebabkan laba tahunan yang diperoleh hilang saat Senin Hitam.

Indeks Dow Jones jatuh hingga 22,6 persen hanya dalam sehari. Penurunan ini adalah yang paling drastis dalam sejarah indeks Dow Jones.

"Bagi saya yang orang baru di lantai bursa, rasanya seperti kiamat", cerita pialang Louis Sulsenti. "Saya pikir, ini akhir dari pasar bursa dan perdagangan saham. Kacau sekali, namun masih terorganisir."

Hingga kini masih tidak jelas apa penyebab keruntuhan bursa tersebut. Pakar sejarah keuangan Sylla mengatakan, selain perkembangan keuangan global, teknologi baru yang digunakan juga memainkan peranan. Kejatuhan pasar saham tahun 1987 terjadi dengan latar belakang pengetatan kebijakan moneter oleh Federal Reserve AS. Antara Januari dan Oktober 1987, The Fed menaikkan FFR (Fed Fund Rate) hampir 100 basis poin ke angka 7.25% membuat pinjaman kredit terasa lebih berat dengan bunga tinggi dan harga sahampun mengalami kejatuhan karena dunia usaha lesu.

Pengamanan strategi portfolio seharusnya melindungi pemegang portfolio saham besar dari kerugian yang terlalu besar. Celakanya, sistem akan menjual saham secara otomatis ketika kurs jatuh. Metode yang seharusnya memastikan penjualan berjalan lebih aman, pada akhirnya merugikan para pemilik saham.

Pelajaran dari peristiwa "Black Monday"

Mengutip dari catatan pengalaman pribadi Steven Goldberg yang dimuat di Kiplinger pada 9 Oktober 2017.

"Saya belajar beberapa hal dari peristiwa Senin Hitam. Inilah kunci utama saya dari kecelakaan 1987 dan akibatnya."

"Tidak ada yang tahu apa yang akan terjadi di pasar saham. Tidak ada “uang pintar” yang memiliki ide lebih baik daripada Anda atau saya tentang ke mana arah pasar berikutnya. Bersikaplah rendah hati tentang kemampuan Anda untuk memprediksi pergerakan pasar. Saya keliru ketika saya merasa percaya diri  dan mengira market timing saya sudah tepat."

Hal yang sama berlaku untuk ekonomi. Resesi adalah bagian dari permainan, begitu juga inflasi. Prediksi adalah tebakan, yang terbaik adalah tebakan terbaik.

"Harapkan apa saja. Pasar saham bisa jatuh hari ini atau besok. Sesuatu seperti apa yang terjadi pada Senin Hitam hampir pasti akan terjadi lagi. Gejolak dan pasar yang kejam adalah bagian dari investasi. Itulah mengapa uang yang tidak Anda relakan untuk hilang bahkan untuk sementara, tidak seharusnya ada di pasar saham. Saya beruntung tetapi bodoh karena berinvestasi saham dengan uang kuliah anak tiri saya."

"Jangan pernah membuat gerakan besar seperti yang saya lakukan sebelum Senin Hitam ketika saya menjual aset saya demi untuk membeli saham. (Tentu saja, saya masih muda dan tidak terlalu banyak berinvestasi). Saya berbicara dengan investor lebih sering daripada yang Anda kira, yang telah keluar dari pasar sejak 2008, dan sedang menunggu kejatuhan pasar saham lain untuk kembali investasi ke saham. Mereka telah mendapatkan keuntungan besar dari peristiwa resesi ekonomi."

Sejarah telah mencatat bahwa pasar saham telah beberapa kali mengalami kejatuhan dan berhasil bangkit lagi. Tidak satu orang pun mengatakan bahwa Anda salah ketika mengurangi kepemilikan saham Anda di saat prospek saham tampak redup atau membeli lebih banyak saham ketika semuanya terlihat bagus. Tetapi memotong (atau menaikkan) alokasi Anda ke saham lebih dari 10% atau 20% mungkin akan menjadi kesalahan. Saham masih merupakan tempat di mana Anda mungkin akan mendapatkan uang paling banyak dalam jangka panjang jika Anda tetap menahannya, dan pasti akan terjadi penurunan selama masa investasi tersebut, sehingga Anda tidak perlu menggunakan uang panas (uang yang dibutuhkan sewaktu-waktu) untuk investasi saham.

 

 

17 Kesalahan Dalam Kegiatan Investasi Saham by Hilmawan Kusumajaya

  Kredit foto:   Glenn Carstens-Peters   (Unsplash)

Kredit foto: Glenn Carstens-Peters (Unsplash)

Post ini adalah guest post dari bolasalju.com @arif

Ketika memulai investasi saham, apalagi jika kita benar-benar baru mengenal investasi saham pasti kita akan melakukan kesalahan-kesalahan. Kesalahan yang kita lakukan tidak harus berarti buruk, dari kesalahan yang kita lakukan kita juga bisa belajar untuk menjadi lebih baik.

Tapi ada baiknya kita tidak perlu melakukan kesalahan untuk belajar menjadi lebih baik dalam berinvestasi saham. 

@arif dari bolasalju.com memberikan guest post yang berisi list dari 17 kesalahan yang pernah dilakukan.

17 kesalahan itu adalah:

  1. Mendapat data yang buruk
  2. Terlalu percaya diri
  3. Terlalu serakah hingga mengabaikan pertimbangan rasional apa pun
  4. Terlalu ingin mengambil keuntungan kecil (30%-50%) sementara saham masih bisa naik hingga 250%
  5. Terlalu buru-buru mengambil keuntungan recehan 5%-20%. Padahal saham masih bisa naik lebih besar lagi.
  6. Tidak sabar
  7. Terlalu percaya proyeksi. Padahal tidak ada yang bisa meramal dengan akurasi tinggi. Ya, termasuk saya dan kamu.
  8. Beli saham tanpa riset (itu di awal dulu, sih)
  9. Beli atau jual saham karena panik
  10. Tidak ada rencana portfolio
  11. Membeli saham karena citra perusahaan. Perusahan bercitra bagus belum tentu sahamnya bagus.
  12. Tidak bertindak lebih cepat setelah mengetahui kesalahan. Tahu analisa salah kenapa tidak langsung jual? Akhirnya terpapar kerugian lebih besar.
  13. Menyimpan loser dan berharap perusahaan itu lebih baik
  14. Tidak tahan emosi
  15. Terlalu berorientasi jangka pendek
  16. Tidak percaya pada analisis sendiri
  17. Mengulangi kesalahan

Semoga dengan daftar 17 kesalahan yang pernah dilakukan oleh @arif, kamu bisa belajar untuk tidak melakukan kesalahan yang sama dan bisa berinvestasi saham lebih baik lagi. 

Artikel semula terbit di Bolasalju.


Didirikan sejak 2010, Bolasalju menyediakan edukasi dan riset berupa ide investasi siap eksekusi.

Website: bolasalju.com

Yuk diskusi dengan @arif bolasalju di Stockbit

Gloomy Weather Hovering Over Indonesia Economy by Hilmawan Kusumajaya

 Photo credit:  budinarendra  (flickr)

Photo credit: budinarendra (flickr)

In the past three weeks, Turkey has suffered a great stress in their currency market. They have been hit by another Trump’s blow in which Turkey Lira depreciated 10,33% a week after Trump announced (8/10) that US would impose tariff on steel and aluminium Turkey for 50% and 20% respectively. Investors tried to pull out their money hence causing a tumult in emerging market stock indices and currencies, including Indonesia. All are too afraid because Trump can hit any country in a single tweet.

The Twitter Attack!

When we started this year, some said that we could be in another crisis after we suffered the great subprime mortgage crisis 10 years ago. This hypothesis is bolstered with the facts that Trump left the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) right on the first day he sat in white house by saying “on trade, I’m going to issue a notification of intent to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership”. He then tweeted that TPP is a potential disaster too.

After US left TPP, Trump began to review US trade deficit that he thought US trade balance should be positive. Here’s when the story of trade war begins.

In April 2017, President Trump instructed his administration to self-initiate two major investigations into steel and aluminium imports threatening US national security, especially from China. Therefore, US continued searching what kind of goods hurting US current account balance with China as the biggest contributor to US deficit. As of 2017, US deficit from China reached USD357,6 billion or approximately 40% of US deficit coming from China.

Following Trump’s instruction, US International Trade Commission found that imports of solar panels and washing machines have caused injury to those industries. On January 22, 2018, Trump then approved to impose tariff on USD8.5 billion solar panels and USD1.8 billion washing machines. Two weeks later, China self-initiated to investigate of roughly USD1 billion US exports of sorghum even though Chinese government denied the action was some kind of retaliation.

This fighting continued between US and China. The peak moment was when Trump tweeted on March 1, 2018 trade wars are good” as he announced plans for steeper US tariffs on steel and aluminium by 25% and 10% respectively. This action was then widened to EU, NAFTA (exclude Canada & Mexico), and South Korea that Trump wanted to impose the tariff as well. From that day, emerging markets started to tumble down worried this action could hamper global trade in the future.

The Mighty China

The trade war between the two countries has started to affect China’s external trade. Their Q1–2018 current account posted a deficit for the first time since Q1–2001 because of the significant decrease in goods. The trade war also sent their stock index and currency down.

But China is no more a small country. They have guts to fight back by retaliating tariffs for some of US goods in order to hurt US. As the biggest factory in the world with investment as the main contributor of GDP, China succeeded to keep their economy stable amid the on-going trade war as seen from their stable growth in Q2- 2018 at 6,7% yoy, only 0,1% lower from previous quarter.

In fact, the depreciating CNY is maybe according to their plan, because the cheaper CNY the more goods exported. And of course, China has that comparative advantage to play the J-curve condition as their current account balance bounced back to surplus in the second quarter, so it seems like China would not surrender from this game.

Heatwave from Turkey

After playing game with China, EU, South Korea and other countries, President Trump then struck Turkey on August 10 by imposing tariff on aluminium and metal Turkey after conflicting the issue of a detained American Pastor in Ankara. This conflict worsened US-Turkey relationship after previously disputing about Syrian Civil War and a failed coup attempt in 2016.

Turkey did retaliate by imposing tariffs for US exports as well. But unlike China, Turkey could not defend the heat. The sanction from US directly blew up the market which has been overheating just before the trade war. The high GDP growth followed by high inflation, high private credit growth and increasing external debt have worsened the external stress dropped by Trump.

Turkey also has another issue in their fundamentals as they have been suffering a twin deficit for more than a decade. Moreover, their current account deficit has widened to -7,9% in Q1–2018, widest deficit since taper tantrum.

In order to stabilize the currency, Turkey central bank has increased 975 bps their policy rate from 8% to 17,75% in the last 4 months along with dropping its foreign reserves by USD16.9 billion from January 2018. When the currency was in pressure in the second week of August, the central bank allowed Turkish banks to borrow foreign short-term debt, decreased reserve requirement and allowed to use EUR (not only USD) as foreign reserve requirement.

Turkish banking authority has also played part in stabilizing Lira by limiting swap transactions and restructuring credit policy. Amidst the arising tension, Turkey has succeeded in convincing their neighbor Qatar to pledge USD15 billion investment for Turkey.

As a result, these responses managed to momentarily end the rout in Turkish Lira. But the rout could radiate to other fragile countries.

A Thin Rupiah

The two-week Asian Games event held in Jakarta and Palembang have not been so helpful in driving a stronger Rupiah, indeed its value has gradually decreased to IDR14,725/USD, matching its weakest since September 2015. And if it weakens further, it would hit the lowest point in 20 years. For now, Indonesia is the second worst performer of 2018 in terms of currency depreciation in Asia after India. To help maintain the stability, Bank Indonesia raised its interest rate policy by 25 bps to 5,50%, collecting 125 bps hike throughout 2018.

As financial market tumbled in Turkey spread through other emerging market countries, Indonesia has been in pain more than its peers in Asia. Despite a bold growth in second quarter, low-stable inflation and persistent stock market index, Turkey (and Argentina) currency has triggered the large sell-off of USD in Indonesia. But why Indonesia?

Indonesia has been targeted due to some classic issue, a twin deficit, just like Turkey. These deficits are expected to lower Rupiah even further and are worsened by the speculators action. Indonesia current account has widened in Q2–2018 reaching -3,04% of GDP, driven by high imports of infrastructure materials to endorse Government’s main program. After an extensive decline in Rupiah’s value, Jokowi’s administration has promised to halt some infrastructure projects and reduce imports for consumer goods to prevent further depreciation.

This situation are more perplexing for Indonesia due to the external behaviour. The trade war between China and US would hurt Indonesian export indirectly since China and US are the two biggest Indonesia trading partners. So the less their export, the less their import as well. Moreover, stronger US economy followed by increasing trend of FFR would enforce a sell-off in our domestic market that later would induce a rout in its financial market. Can Rupiah stand its position?

Indonesia market once hit so hard with taper tantrum and low commodity price in 2013 and 2015 respectively. But we stood firmly at that time. This time, Indonesia’s fundamental factor is better than it was. I expect that the growth would be even higher in the second semester because the Government has only realised his social budget (alokasi dana desa) by 30% along with low and stable inflation.

From the demand side, revenue of non-financial public company has been growing along with high cash flow investment. It means that the private sector is in expansion phase, expecting that demand will recover in coming months. The boost in credit growth in the last three months also confirmed the expansion phase as it is mainly driven by investment and working capital. I wish, but cannot guarantee, this recovery can persuade investor to keep their money here.

Tourism is the Main Key

Apart from what the authorities have done in the short term and the good signal from both household and corporation, they have to think about the longer term structure. As a growing country with demography bonus in 2025–2035, the current account balance should restore to surplus. But how?

We have to accept that Indonesia cannot merely rely on commodity due to its price volatility, like we felt in the last four years. We understand that our comparative advantage in the world right now is producing good commodities but it hurts the current account when the price subdues.

Unfortunately, to export authentic final goods from Indonesia is truly impossible at this time since we do not have that kind of technology, resources and structural support from the Government yet. I believe that to produce final goods that can compete in international level will at least take a longer period of time.

Indonesia can learn from Thailand that has succeeded in keeping their currency stable nowadays because of the positive services, thanks to tourists’ arrival that have doubled since 2012. In the current phenomenon where millennials go to places for taking pictures and posting photos in instagram, tourism has helped Thailand services lift the current account balance back to surplus.

In a similar tune, Indonesia has a lot of potential in tourism sector with its white-sand beaches, beautiful islands, diverse culture and deep-rooted history that not many other countries possess. Hence, the government should support the development of tourism in Indonesia through strategic initiatives on this sector.


This article was first published on the Medium

The writer is a junior analyst at Indonesia Financial Services Authority. The views expressed are his own and do not represent institution he works at.

You can have a discussion with author on Stockbit, just mention @haekal11 and don't forget to follow him on Stockbit.

Fitur Search Stockbit : Mencari dan menemukan Saham Belum Pernah Semudah Ini by Dedi Utomo

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